Factors associated with the Incidence of Tuberculosis and Predicting the Number of Cases in the Area of Mueang Pattani District
Keywords:
Predicting, Factors, Tuberculosis, IncidenceAbstract
Ending the epidemic of tuberculosis (TB) is one of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals. To achieve the goal, data is therefore an important tool for public health officials to plan and improve strategies for disease control. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the factors associated with the incidence of tuberculosis in the area of Mueang Pattani District, along with predicting the number of patients. Data on confirmed tuberculosis cases from 2019 to 2023 was obtained from the National Tuberculosis Information Program (NTIP) database. Multiple poisson regression and linear regression statistical models were used to investigate the factors and predict the numbers of patients, respectively. The results of the study showed that males were 1.4 times more likely to develop tuberculosis than females. Age groups aged 44 years and over had a higher risk than children under 15 years of age. Sub-districts with urban societies such as Sabarang, Anoru, Chabang Tiko, Bana, Ru Samilae, Puyut, and surrounding suburban sub-districts such as Talubo, Tanyong Lulo, Baraho, and Paka Harang had a lower risk compared to Barahom. For predicting the number of patients, it was found to decrease by 28 people per year on average. The results of the study can be applied to TB control planning, and the analysis method can be applied to studies of other communicable diseases or other areas as well.
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