Forecasts of the volume and value of durian exports by private companies

Abstract

This research focuses on a forecasting model for the export volume and value of durians by Southern King Corp. Ltd. The objectives are to study the export trend of durians by Southern King Corp. Ltd., to compare different forecasting models for the company’s durian export volume, and to apply the most suitable forecasting model to predict future export volumes. The researcher collected the company’s durian export volume data from the past three years and aggregated the data for use in forecasting exports for the next 12 months. Three forecasting techniques were employed to determine the most appropriate method for the study : 1. Moving Average Method , 2. Double Exponential Smoothing Method , 3. Winters’ Method The accuracy and suitability of the forecasting models were evaluated using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Mean Square Deviation (MSD), with the lowest average values indicating the best-performing model. A statistical software package was used to conduct the data analysis.
The research findings revealed that the most suitable forecasting method for predicting the export volume of durians by Southern King Corp. Ltd. is the Double Exponential Smoothing Method. For the company’s durian export volume, the forecast calculation results produced the following parameter values: α = 0.764181 and γ = 0.087880. The model yielded a MAPE of 3.67826, MAD of 1.31892, and MSD of 3.45953 in forecasting the durian export volume of Southern King Corp. Ltd. for the next 12 months.