Contributing Factors of Fatal Commercial Air Accidents: Quantitative Approach
Keywords:
Fatal Accident, Commercial Air Transport, Binary Logistic Regression, Censored Regression, Ordered Logistic RegressionAbstract
The study examines the associations between accidents and contributing factors and the impacts of factors on accidents with fatalities using binary logistic regression and explores the effects of factors on the number of fatalities and aircraft damage. A total of 114 worldwide commercial aircraft accidents during 2014–2017 were collected from accident databases, final investigation reports, and various aviation communities. Correlation and post hoc tests, and binary logistic, censored, and ordered logistic regression, were adopted. Results revealed that aircraft manufacturer, aircraft model, aircraft size, flight phase, and State of occurrence’s effective implementation (EI) are associated with accidents. The predicted model suggested that early morning flights, small-sized aircraft, and flying to/from/in a State with a lower EI signify the likelihood of an accident with fatalities occurring. Further, State of occurrence’s EI was discovered to impact accidents with fatalities, number of fatalities, and aircraft damage, therefore it is the key to mitigating and preventing future mishaps.
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