Price Forecast of Major Vegetables Crops Participation with Vegetables Farmers in Phetchabun Province

Abstract

The objective of this research was to compare and select the best forecasting time series method for forecast the price of major vegetables in Phetchabun province participation with farmers. The five comparison forecasting methods include: (1) Naive method (2) Moving average method (3) Simple exponential smoothing method (4) Double exponential smoothing method and (5) Winter’s exponential smoothing method. A forecast model using the selling price data of cabbage from Talaadthai since January 2021 to December 2022 amount 730 data, then compared with the forecast values obtained from the model and the actual values. This research appropriate forecasting methods from the lowest were considered of mean percentage of absolute error (MAPE), mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean square error (MSE). The results showed that (1) Naive method suitable for forecasting the lowest selling price of cabbage, which gives MAPE = 2.3275, MAD = 0.2538 and MSE = 1.1728 (2) Naive method suitable for forecasting the highest selling price of cabbage, which gives MAPE = 2.1581 MAD = 0.3086 and MSE = 1.5377 and (3) Most of the vegetable farmers in Phetchabun choose to use the Naive method for forecasting the selling price of vegetables in advance for harvest planning.