Mobilizing International Stakeholders’ Pressure to Shape the Dynamics of the China-Philippines Maritime Dispute in the South China Sea
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Abstract
This study examines the evolving roles of international stakeholders in the ongoing maritime dispute between China and the Philippines, with particular attention to the narratives surrounding South China Sea claims and the implementation of the 2016 Arbitral Tribunal Ruling. Using a descriptive-analytical qualitative method and document-based data, it analyzes how international legal norms interact with geopolitical power asymmetries. China’s noncompliance, grounded in historical claims and reinforced by military and economic strength, reveals the limits of international legal instruments when challenged by great powers. The study also considers the behavior of ASEAN, the United States, and other regional actors. Although the arbitral ruling provided juridical clarity and diplomatic leverage, enforcement remains elusive due to ASEAN’s fragmentation and China’s advantage in bilateral negotiations. Official narratives issued through white papers project peaceful intentions yet simultaneously advance strategic dominance, weakening multilateral efforts toward dispute resolution. The findings highlight that international law, absent credible deterrents, struggles to constrain state action. Realist international relations theory offers a useful lens for understanding China’s assertiveness and the restrained or inconsistent responses of regional stakeholders. Accordingly, the study underscores the need for stronger multilateral cooperation, technological transparency, civil society engagement, and strategic alliances to achieve a more balanced and enforceable maritime order. Ultimately, the paper concludes that stability in the South China Sea hinges not only on legal legitimacy but also on collective political will, regional cohesion, and assertive diplomacy. Without these elements, the gap between legal victories and on-the-ground realities will persist.
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