AN ANALYSIS OF THE COMPETITIVENESS OF THAI FRESH DURIAN IN THE CHINESE MARKET USING THE REVEALED COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE INDEX AND THE CONSTANT MARKET SHARE MODEL

Abstract

This quantitative research aims to analyze the competitiveness of Thai fresh durian in the Chinese market using secondary data from the International Trade Center (ITC) database for the period 2020–2025. The research instruments include the Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage (NRCA) index and the Constant Market Share (CMS) model, comparing Thailand’s performance with all countries exporting fresh durian to China.

          The findings reveal that: (1) although Thailand maintains the highest export value, Vietnam, as a major competitor, has already surpassed Thailand in terms of export volume in 2025; (2) Thailand's NRCA index shows a continuous downward trend, whereas Vietnam’s index is increasing rapidly; (3) the CMS results indicate that Thailand's competitiveness is in decline, with current export growth largely driven by the expansion of Chinese market demand (commodity effect) rather than Thailand’s intrinsic structural strength; and (4) Thailand’s advantage in export value is primarily driven by higher prices rather than actual competitiveness, as Vietnam benefits from lower logistics costs due to its geographical proximity to China, posing a significant threat to Thailand’s future market share.