MARGINAL BENEFIT INCIDENCE OF SOCIAL SPENDING IN THAILAND: PANEL EVIDENCE FROM PROVINCIAL EDUCATION, HEALTH, AND WELFARE BUDGETS
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This research article aims to: 1) estimate how the utilization of public services across income quintiles responds to changes in provincial social spending; 2) derive the marginal benefit incidence (MBI) of additional public expenditure on education, health, and welfare; 3) draw policy implications for restructuring Thailand’s social sector budget under fiscal constraints to enhance its redistributive impact. The researchers conduct a quantitative panel data research study collecting data from household socio-economic surveys and fiscal records across 30 Thai provinces (from 2007 to 2023); analyze the data using fixed-effects panel regression models to estimate quintile-specific elasticities and Concentration Index (CI) measurements. The research results found that:
1) Additional spending on education and welfare is clearly pro-poor at the margin, with the poorest quintile receiving marginal benefits 36% higher than the average incidence
2) The marginal incidence of health spending is neutrally distributed, indicating that despite universal coverage, lower-income households still face substantial non-financial barriers to access.
3) Policy simulations reveal that a geographic reallocation of budgets from high-income to low-income provinces generates an 83% progressivity gain, proving significantly more effective at reducing inequality than a uniform expansion of resources.
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